Shoot Me Baby One More Time

Let's imagine that we are recruiting a team to dominate Euroleague. We would choose our maestro from the list here. Now,what's next? A solid big guy or a reliable shooter ? It depends on one's perspective for sure, on the other hand I analyzed the marksmen in this post.

There are several kinds of player in every team's rosters. Involving players with different types are considered essential for a team roster. It's easy to understand though, if you have players who can play at different roles then you have numerous offensive and defensive options to apply. Yet, there are some types of players indispensable for any team's roster. Spot shooters -aka snipers- are such kind of players. Every team needs a reliable shooter regardless of the system they choose to play. These players could be leader of their teams -like Kevin Durant or La Bomba- or could be a mediocre player -like Danny Green- who is only perfect for some well-defined,limited roles. As I said, every team needs a sniper,but how can you rate shooters? As you can guess, field goal percentages are not enough for us. What makes shooting hard? Could every two pointer attempt be considered as shooting position? Are there any differences between scoring two pointer and scoring three pointer ?

Let's get down to the business. There several elements which makes shooting hard. First of all, it's very important how your opponent's defense is. If they can defend shooters well, it would be much harder for your players to shoot. Also, volume of the shoots affects shooting percentage. Shooting percentage tends to decrease when number of shoots increases. It makes sense actually. It would much more harder to shoot 10 balls in a row with 100 % then shoot 2 balls in a row with 100%. So, we need to create a correlation function between field goal percentage and field goal attempt to get rid of that problem. After I've formed up correlation function, another question bumped in to my head; could every two pointer attempt be considered as shooting position.  Definitely, no! Remember, dunks and layups are also counted as two pointer attempts in boxscore. Yet, they cannot be counted as shooting positions. We need to eliminate these positions from real shooting positions to determine shooting percentage. After all adjustments, there was still a few more problems. One of them was, weighting two pointers and three pointers. Since it’s harder to score three  pointer than to score two pointer - even though some crazy guys look more confident behind the arc like Steve Novak, they are exceptions of the rule, and you know what they say about the expections, they prove the rule -, we need to reward three pointers slightly higher than two pointers. Actually, we don’t need to do anything at all. As the names implies, they can be easily weighted with the ratio of 2 to 3. Now, there is still one more problem; Free Throws. I couldn't decide if I should regard free throw attempts as shooting attempts. To be honest, either ways make sense to me, so I made two analysis.

The list above doesn't include free throw numbers. Opponent's Strength column represents how the opponent of the corresponding players' team defend shooting positions. As I mentioned before, 2-Pointer Rate doesn't include dunks and layups. Shooting Rates are final results of the adjusted numbers of difficulty of the shoots, shooting volumes and weighted shooting rates. 

This list on the other hand, also includes Free Throw Rates. There are no fantastical changes. Leader and the runner-up are still in the same place. We have some new comers like Sonny Weems,Vassilis Spanoulis,Curtis Jerrells,Milos Teodosic and Jason Kapono. Also, we have some players who is out of Top 20 list like Earl Colloway,Jaycee Carroll,Brion Rush,Bracey Wright and Devin Smith.

I couldn't decide which list is better, it's up to you now...

PM Ranking of the Season

We did a lot of play making analyses so far. Since the season has ended -sadly- , we decided to prepare all season rankings for a few stat that we've created. A few days ago Mehmet shared  T-Con ranking. Now,I'll share the play making rankings for all Euroleague players***.

Here is the first 25 play maker of the Euroleague.

Names at top are not surprising. We all know about play making abilities of them. Also, Saski Baskonia shines out with two player at top 5. That's just rich. 

Players from 25 to 50 is shown below.

There were only 55 player eligible player for this list by the way. So, the worst play makers in the list are also one of the worst play makers in all Euroleague. That doesn't suppose to mean too much of course. Not every point guard has to have same style. Some of them prefer to set more plays for their teammates while others prefer scoring as primary option. This list shows the point guard ranking at the first category,that doesn't have to show the "BEST" point guards at all.

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

***: Only players who played at least 15 minutes per a game and played at least 5 game were eligible  for the evaluation. 

#4 Real Madrid - Speed up Royals

Like Barcelona, Real's roster nearly same with last years' Top 16 Real. Tomic out Slaughter in was major switch of pre-season. Interestingly, the key matchup of first step of F4 can Tomic vs Slaughter. Slaughter should stand behind Tomic solid otherwise he will defend one two size bigger than him,Jawai.

Like Barca and Oly, Real has 2 player in top 10 T-con Rank. However not like the other F4 teams, Real's first 5 players in T-Con are originally like to play outside. It reflects Real's offense exactly. But nonbeing Bigman threat will their soft spot in El clasico.

When you look play-maker analyze, There is a big difference between Real and other F4 teams

Azerbaijan Airlines is number one hot-shooter so far according our shooter analyze. And real shooters will their main power in F4. Against Barca with no Pete Mikael, Real can play more minutes with 3 guard that means Pascual can hold Sada in game and we all know what will happen in the other side of court right?

Real has one of best rebounders of all time Euroleage, Reyes. He still best man in Real at this age. They have also Mirotic in top 10. They have to struggle against Barca's big boys to balance rebound.

Real's TDR rates are amazing like Barca. If you consider Real's pace, their defense stats are impressive. They can bite opponents when they want.Here is their TDR progress round by round.

Real's TOR number are decreasing while Euroleague progresses. That can be explained by opponents strength and sharpened defenses. And also you can check out Real's TOR progress against EL average.

And, Play Oriented Winning Function analysis;

Against fierce rival Barca, 83 magic number. Over 83 number of play odds will return to Real Madrid. As for potential match-up against Russians they should increase the game pace even more because 83 would probably not enough. However against Oly, 80 number of play will be enough in favor of Real.

Real started Top 16 with 9-1 record but they didn't look like 9-1 team. They won 2xZalgiris, Alba, Pana, Brose games with less than 5 margin.So and so they lost 3 game streak and lost first spot and again luckly they matched up Maccabi (If Pablo Laso had selected opponent he would select Maccabi I think). They swept Maccabi as all we know with average 16 margin!. Under consideration of all circumstances Barca look like half of a step ahead in El Clasico.

#3 Olympiacos Piraeus - Fear the Beard

Here we came to reigning champion. Last year, Olympiacos set the Europe on fire by winning the title over CSKA. Who can forget Printezis' last shot. This year, they kept most of their roster but not their coach Dusan Ivkovic here they are again with their new coach Georgios Bartzokas. The table below shows the roster of the Olympiacos and players' T-Con values.

The Beard of the Europe (as Mehmet named him) , is the top player in all Final Four players in terms of tangible contribution. Also, Kyle Hines is one of the Top 10 players. Olympiacos has fewest player -only 4-  in Top 20 players. Yet, we all know how dangerous they are as a team. Also, they have a man who can change dynamics of a game whenever he wants, Spanoulis and Rising Star of the European Basketball, Papanikolaou.

Let's look at the playmakers of the Olympiacos ;

It's painful that Mantzaris done for the season. He was the best playmaker in the team as it seems. He was second best playmaker in all Final Four players. Even though there is big difference between Mantzaris and Sloukas&Law in all players list,both Sloukas and Law is at Top 10 in Final Four players.

As for shooters of the Olympiacos ;

In combined shooting ranking (SV1) Spanoulis is the best shooter of the Oly. As for 3-pointers Kostas Papanikolaou is not only Olympiacos' best shooter, but also one of the best in all players. Olympiacos has also a few more shooters who can hurt their opponent when they are needed like Printezis,Antic and Perperoglou.

Now, let's look at the rebounding stats of the Olympiacos;

Oly has 3 players in Top 10 list. Kyle Hines looks like best rebounders of the team. He is also Top 10 list for all Euroleague players. Also all best 5 rebounders of the Oly is in the Top 20 list. That shows us how strong Olympiacos is in the painted area. They are especially powerful at defensive rebounds. It can easily be linked to their defensive capability.

It's time to look TDR and TOR values.

Table above proves that Olympiacos was above EL average in every phase of the Euroleague. It is no surprise at all I believe, since it was obvious that Olympiacos was one of the best defensive teams in the Euroleague. The graph below shows the progress of the Euroleague,Olympiacos' TDR values and EL averages in every phase.

As for TOR values ;

Even though Olympiacos' TOR values are decreasing, they were above the EL averages in all phases. We can link this increase to the strength of the opponents. TOR values of the Oly and EL averages are shown  in the graph below.

And finally, Play Oriented Winning Functions;

As we showed in the CSKA post and Barcelona post, game function between Olympiacos and CSKA forms a quadratic function while game function between Olympiacos and Barcelona forms a linear function. The game function between Olympiacos and Real Madrid also forms a linear function.

Olympiacos should be very careful against CSKA Moscow, because number of plays they normally choose to play is in favor of CSKA Moscow. So, they should lower the game pace even more than they normally do. Another option for the CSKA game is increasing the game pace above 85 play, yet it would be much harder to accomplish since their roster not quite capable of playing in this pace.

In a potential match-up against Real Madrid, all they have to do is lower the game pace. Real Madrid is very dangerous in high-pace games. Olympiacos is exactly the opposite. So, in such match-up, whoever manages to establish its pace would win the game. The key of the game is 80 play. It means under 80 play, Olympiacos has a bigger chance to win and it increases while the game pace decreases.

As for a potential match-up against Barcelona, Olympiacos should lower the pace even more. Key number of the game is 77 play. Olympiacos should lower the game pace under the 77 play. If they couldn't,than any extra play would serve to the Barcelona.

To sum up, Olympiacos is a team which is successful in lower pace game. They should defend hard and discomfort their opponents. And also everyone should remember that, they are defending champion and as Rudy Tomjanovic said; "Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion!".

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

#2 Barcelona Regal- Mes Que Un F4

Please read Prologue first,

#1 CSKA Moscow Russians have unfinised business

After a loss against Oly in F4 last year, Barca's roster stayed nearly same. Javai and Tomic was major  incomers. They adapted team in an instant and gave more than expected, especially  Tomic became a major piece for the both side of court. Barcelona's biggest loss in this season definetly Pete Mikael. He was only person who can score in the painted area from backcourt. That will Barca's weak side in El Clasico beyond any doubt. Pascual must find a way to score when team stucked in offense like game 2-3-4 against Pana. Besides CJ Wallace's doubtful health will effect Barca's rotation in 4.

T-CON values show us  so far Barca's MVP is Tomic. They have only 2 player in top 10. That demonstrates Barca came F4 with un-selfhood performances. In CSKA's analyze CSKA had 4 player top 10.

Guards of Barcelona's play making ability values can be discernible above. Barca had 2 great playmakers but this years numbers are not very well when you compare them against F4 opponents.

If someone mention F4 shooter, he will name Navarro somewhere in talking. But apart from La Bomba hard to say Barca has reliable shooters. As we saw in Top 8 against Pana in the crunch times, Barca can have difficulty to find someone to spread offense.

Rebounds one of Barca's strongest side. Tomic and Jawai don't let team trouble in rebounds with their size supermacies. And also they have great backcourt rebounders like Sada. But CJ Wallace's health issue will be important in rebounds too.

Past a few years, Pascual made one of best defensive team in Europe. Despite of big change in front court they still one of best. Above, TDR(Team Defensive Rating) table shows Barca's defense performances' round by round. Decreasing in the rates related with opponents strength but Barca's rates still very good when compared with F4 opponents. Graph of TDR can be shown below.

The progress of Barca offense is shown below with Team Offensive Rating (TOR).

The offense of Barca was always above from EL average till playoffs. Against Pana they struggled in the offense. And 3,04 value take them below from averages.I think, the value of TOR in F4 will decisive for Barca's success. Here is graph of TOR for Barca.

Last and the most important  part of analyze is Play Oriented Winning Percentages. We use this analyze to determine which number of play in the game will serve the teams. First opponent of Barca is rival enemy  Real Madrid.

In the Real Madrid-Barcelona game 83 number of play will be breaking point. That means the game below 83 number of the play will be advantage for Barcelona. As expected, high tempo will serve Real Madrid in F4 matchup against Barca.

If Barca pass Real Madrid against Oly things will change. This time breaking point is 77. And above 77 play number will be advantage for Barca.

As Doğuş mentioned in CSKA Analyze, In possible CSKA- Barca match-up things will be different. In this game will be two breaking point. Till 66 play number and above 85 play number Barca will be front-runner of the game.

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

#1 CSKA Moscow- Russians Have an Unfinished Business

After the last season, CSKA Moscow is in the Final Four again. As we all can remember, last game of the 2011-12 Season was devastating for the Russian Powerhouse. They may have lost great players from last season's roster, yet they are still one of the most dominating team in the European League. Let's start CSKA Moscow analysis with the team's roster.

In the last column, T-Con Ranks show the ranking of the player in terms of his tangible contribution. Remember these ranks shows the players place in only Final Four teams' players. CSKA has 3 player (Khryapa,Teodosic,Krstic) in Top 5 players and 1 more player (Weems) in Top 10 players. It's obvious that they have great Starting 5.

Next, we analyzed the all team's point guards' play making abilities. Let's look how good is the CSKA Moscow's commanders;

Remember, this stat show point guard's play making abilities. So, players which tend to create more offensive opportunities for his team mates get better scores.  We've found their ranking in both all-players of Euroleague and all-players of Final Four Teams. Papaloukas is at the top on Final Four list. Also, starting point guard Teodosic is one of the Top 3 point guards which shows CSKA would have the advantage for smoother offense in following games.

After play making abilities, shooting analysis is the next. We analyzed all players in term of shooting abilities and determined the Top 5 shooters for all teams. Let's find out who are the CSKA's top shooters.

There are two different type of Shooting Values (SV). First one (SV1) includes both 3-pointers and middle range shoots. They are weighted differently by their profits of course. MR Value and 3P Values are the values that shows weighted players' shooting accuracy by considering their opponent's shot-defending stats.  MR Vol. and 3PA Vol. represent value of how many shots players have taken to reach their field goal percentage. As I've mention in previous post, I've formed a shooting distribution to find these scores. Ranks are combination of these Shooting Values and Shooting Volumes. On the other hand, second Shooting Value (SV2) take only 3-pointers and volume of 3-pointer shoots into consideration.Same combination logic applied these stats to find 3-pointers ranks.

We also made a rebounding analysis to understand team's success at the rebounds.

I've mentioned in the Prologue post how we calculated rebound rates. When we look at the ranks, we can easily see that best rebounder of the Euroleague is in the CSKA's roster,Khryapa. They also have one more player who is one of the Top 10 rebounders in all Final Four players,Krstic. It shows, CSKA would probably have no problems in the front court.

It's time to shows how is CSKA doing in TDR and TOR rankings.

Table above, shows how CSKA's TDR scores changes while Euroleague advances and what was the average TDR scores in every phase they've passed. Till the Playoff, CSKA was always above the EL Av. Yet, they were under the average in the playoffs which is a little bit alarming for them. The graph below shows this progress.

As for offensive efficiency, TOR scores of the CSKA are showed at the table below.

Unlike TDR, CSKA was above the Euroleague average in every phase they played. Not only that, but also it's clear that they increased their offensive efficiency while the tournament advances.

Now, last but not least Play Oriented Winning Percentages. As I've mentioned before, these percentages are formed by developing team's play oriented winning function and comparing these functions to their opponent's functions.Thus, I was able to determine number of plays that are good and bad for each teams. Let's start with the first game of the CSKA;

Game Function shows the function of the CSKA Moscow vs Olympiacos games' function as the name implies. First Breaking Point (FBP) of this game  is 66 play per team. Second Breaking Point (SBP) of the game is 85 play/game. Let's find out how these breaking points chances teams' winning chances. That tells us between 66 number of play and 85 number of play CSKA has the advantage. Yet, below the 66 number of play ( which is almost impossible for a game to finish with that much low number of plays) and above 85 number of plays Oly gets the advantage.However, since Oly prefers low pace games, it would be harder for them to compete with CSKA. Now, let's look at the breaking points of other potential match-ups.

It seems that CSKA has its comfort zone between 60 and 85 number of plays. Euroleague average for this season is approximately 80 number of plays by the way which proves that CSKA fans has every rights to claim championship. 

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

TOR Ladder Week 12

Here is Team Offensive Rating Ladder week 12 based on teams' TOP 16 offensive performances. 

TDR Ladder Week 10

Here is Team Defensive Rating Ladder based on teams' TOP 16 defensive performances.