Thunder's Way

In these days every unsuccessfull teams trying to do Thunder's formula to become successfull. It is becoming more and more boring  to see tanking that much. Drafts are not always a gold mine. Thus we tried to remember how successfull teams (made Conferance Finals) built their team between 2000-2012. Between these years because before that there was an unfair league [1]. I'll write only selected teams made Conferance Final more than one. This post shows the team who reached Conferance Fibals between 2000 and 2006. Here are teams.

 LALx4:

We all know 2000's Lakers right. Kobe? Shaq? Ok. They were not good in Jordan era. They missed play-off '93-'94 first since '76. An then they looked around for the best center in the league like all years they did(Mikan-Wilt-Kareem-Shaq-Dwight). Shaq was available at '96 summer, well, got him. Same year draft night Mr.Logo did one of the best trades of all time and took Kobe. Result ; 2 MVP's 4 final and 3 rings. By the way they hired P-Jax as coach in these years.

DETx4:

They started to build championship roster after 2000(32-50 record). They missed play-off that year.But they not at the deep of league like these years. Joe Dumars made amazing moves after that not like these years(Darko Milicic broke his heart I guess.) They got 4 allstar 4! 3 of them was trade. Billups joined from FA. None of them came from draft.

SASx3:

'85 play-off
'86 28-54 = 1th pick=David Robinson
'96 Conference Semi-finals
'97 20-62 = 1th pick=Tim Duncan
'97 Greg Popovic hired as headcoach.
Also they selected two all-star from draft. '99 57th pick !!! '01 28th pick!!. BAM! Here is the dynasty. 15 consequent year play-off 4 rings.

NJNx2:

Look at these records.98-99= 16-34, 99-00=31-51, 00-01= 26-56 nice right! How about  that 02 Final - 03 Final!!. They selected Kenyon from 1st pick in '00 (I guess that draft was worst draft ever.). They sent Stephon Marbury for Jason Kidd. Great!! Also they took Jefferson in 01'draft night by sending 6th pick Eddie Griffin.

INDx2:

In '86-'87 they were at the last spot of play-off. 87' draft night Reggie Miller is selected from 11th pick. That was very suprising and unable to understand for Pacers fans not to select Steve Alford but Donnie Walsh was confident. Result? Ask jersey #31 at Banker Life Fieldhouse ceiling. Anyway, they got Rik Smith after that year form draft. Then, They made 16 play-offs in 18 years. 5 conferance final 1 final. In 2000 Jalen Rose became a Pacer and he was scorer of the Finalist team that year. Besides, they were successfull indeed with Jermaine, Ron Artest, Al Harington. But c'mon Ron Ron.

DALx2:

A conversation from 90's in Dallas.
+ What did Mavs last night?
-Mavs Who?The band one?

Dallas was totally loser in 90's. 0 "zero" play-offs. '98 Draft night  was breaking point  for franchise. Don Nelson wanted a German guy and Suns back-up guard Steve Nash. They had 6th pick for weird-haired blond German. Besides Buck desired Robert Traylor from draft and Suns wanted Pat Garrity. What Mavs did ? Selected Traylor from 6th pick-sent Bucks, took 9th pick Dirk- Pat Garrity from 19th pick-sent Suns got Nash-. Result? 1 MVP 2 Allstar. 2 Final 1 Ring. 12 consequent years play-offs.

PHOx2:

They were not bad in 90's, they lost one time against His Airness, made all play-offs between '89-'01. In '01-'02 team had Marbury-Hardaway-Marion trio but they had gone out of play-offs after 82 games. '02 draft Suns selected Amare Stoudemire from 9th overall. But team was going nowhere. In the mid of '03 they sent Marbury and Hardaway for pieces which means nothing. But they got FA Steve Nash future 2 times MVP. D'antoni's system suited playerss like Nash, Amare and Marion excellently. Nearly all players in these year made their carrer numbers. But that wasn't enough for ring. They needed luck also.

MIAx2:

Early 2000's the hot-blooded '90s Miami's roster was seperated. After 25-57 '02-'03 season Pat Riley gave up, too and left the coaching spot to Stan Van Gundy to take 2 and a half years later. '03 draft night they were waiting Chris Bosh or some thing but special thanks to Joe Dumars they selected Dwayne Wade from 5th overall. One year later, Lakers made a choice between Shaq and Kobe. Shaq was the packing up one. Miami sent a package for  'really' Big-man(Odom-Butler- 10th pick of '02 draft Grant). Wade-Shaq duo lost against Pistons '05 conference finals after that year won rings from 0-2 against Dallas Mavericks.

Wild Card - SAC:

Sacremento Kings was really nice buddy with Dallas Maverick in 90s. Between '87 and '98 seasons they made only one play-off and never won 40 games or more. Again same faith with Mavs in '98 summer(retirement of Jordan and Lock-out '98 summer was milestone for many teams) everything changed for Sacremento -at least for awhile. They made Chris Webber a King and sent all-star guard Mitch Richmond and Otis Thorpe for him to Wizards. Their 14th pick in '96 draft Predrag Stojakovic joined to the team and Rick Adelman-2 time WC champion with Blazers- hired as a head coach. Following years they captured respectively Vlade Divac, Doug Chirstie and Mike Bibby. And 61-21 overalled, Western Conference Finalist, very lovely team was built. But we all know Big Shot Rob right?

[1] Michael Jordan era.
[2]Traded with 4th round pick Stephon Marbury
[3] Peja joined league in 1998
[4] Mavs traded No. 6 pick and a future pick  to the Celtics for Eric Montross and a No. 9 pick
[5] Nets traded 7th round pick Eddie Griffin for 13th round pick Jefferson and pieces
[6]Mavs sent 6th pick  Robert Traylor for 9th pick Nowitzki and 19th pick  Pat Garrity on draft night
[7] Rights from Dallas

PM Ranking of the Season

We did a lot of play making analyses so far. Since the season has ended -sadly- , we decided to prepare all season rankings for a few stat that we've created. A few days ago Mehmet shared  T-Con ranking. Now,I'll share the play making rankings for all Euroleague players***.

Here is the first 25 play maker of the Euroleague.

Names at top are not surprising. We all know about play making abilities of them. Also, Saski Baskonia shines out with two player at top 5. That's just rich. 

Players from 25 to 50 is shown below.

There were only 55 player eligible player for this list by the way. So, the worst play makers in the list are also one of the worst play makers in all Euroleague. That doesn't suppose to mean too much of course. Not every point guard has to have same style. Some of them prefer to set more plays for their teammates while others prefer scoring as primary option. This list shows the point guard ranking at the first category,that doesn't have to show the "BEST" point guards at all.

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

***: Only players who played at least 15 minutes per a game and played at least 5 game were eligible  for the evaluation. 

T-CON Season Ranking

We are starting summary of Euroleague Textbook's own child T-CON (Tangible Contribution) which works to measure players' contribution. T-CON involves play adjusted points, FG, FT, assist, steal, block, turnover,rebound all team stats and opponents stats. However I wouldn't explain the formula here. Doğuş wrote it before with all details. If you want to look at here is the T-CON.

Now I will present first 50 players of Euroleague who has the highest T-CON rank. The table is shown below involve players played +15 minutes. Please click on pics for bigger view.

first 25

second 25

To make some inferences like which country has more reps or which team or which position has more player in first 50, I prepared some additional rankings.

      

United States ( what did you expected?) and PG dominations are the notable results. Also having 3 players from Elan Chalon and Union Olimpija is interesting. It can be explained with that teams playing style and regular season's defensive toughness. Pages of analyses can written about these results but this post presents only results, comments are belonging to you.

Epilogue - Let It Started Already!

This is the final post of the our Final Four Analysis Series. We analyzed the every F4 team separately. Now we'll make a final review. As previous posts, there will be results of the T-Con,Play Makers,Shooters,Rebounders and Play Oriented Winning Analysis in this post. I'll show you Top 10 players for every category.  Let's start with the T-Con;

CSKA Moscow is dominating the list with 4 player while other teams have equally 2 players. Possible MVP candidates for each team ;

Vassilis Spanoulis,Olympiacos
Viktor Khryapa,CSKA Moscow
Rudy Fernandez,Real Madrid
Ante Tomic,Barcelona  

That doesn't mean that one of these four players should definitely win the MVP Award. It just shows how these players made tangible contributions so far. For example, can anyone bet against Navarro ? If Barcelona could fulfill their dreams, he would definitely be a strong candidate.

As always, second analysis is about play making skills ;

We have a Master at the top of the list. Maybe he got old and not the same player he used to be. Yet, he didn't lost any of his basketball IQ for sure. That's what makes Papaloukas one of the greatest players. At the second place, we have Mantzaris. It would be a great misfortune that we couldn't see him in the Final Four. Yet,he is only 23 years old and if everthing progresses as expected, we'll see a lot more of him. It seems that he is taking firm steps forward. Last of all, Greek domination at the list is very remarkable.

Now,it's time to look at snipers of the Final Four;

Jaycee Carroll - personal favorite - is at the top of the list. Both Real Madrid and CSKA Moscow with 4 players.However, the ones from the Barcelona and Olympiacos are players you can never risk to shot. Yet, they can easily score anywhere they want when they are in winning mode even if you defend them. This list shows the combination of the middle range shots and 3-pointers by the way. If we want to look at only 3-pointer the list would be like ;

We have a new comer,Papanikolaou and a goner,Rodriguez. The order of list is also changed of course. But, it seems no one can move the Carroll from the top of the list.

Let's focus on the big guys a little more. Here is the Top 10 rebounders of the Final Four;

Remember, because of the problems to obtain some detailed data in Euroleague, we made some estimations on players' rebound rates. If we could gather them, there would be slight changes in the list possibly. We can say that Barcelona and Olympiacos are dominating the list with 3 players. CSKA Moscow's T-Con leader Khryapa is leading the rebounding list also.

Last of all, Play Oriented Winning Functions;

Table above shows the winning functions of all teams. Also, I've evaluated the every possible scenario and found the Optimal Number of Play (ONoP) for each team to win all possible games. As expected, in a low pace game Olympiacos has great chance to defend his championship. Contrarily, if the pace goes up, it would help Real Madrid. If CSKA and Barcelona want to win, they should adjust the game pace so good that neither Olympiacos nor Real Madrid get the advantage. Between Barcelona and CSKA, optimal number of plays are so close.

This was the last Final For analysis. Because the nature of format, F4 is always open to surprises. Everyone has personal candidates for the championship and we all know that even teams who appear strongest can be easily beaten at the very first day. That's what makes Final Four thrilling. It's time to enjoy greatest stage of the European Basketball.

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

***: Shooting Value 1; combination of middle range shots and 3-pointers

****: Shooting Value 2; value of only 3-pointers

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

#4 Real Madrid - Speed up Royals

Like Barcelona, Real's roster nearly same with last years' Top 16 Real. Tomic out Slaughter in was major switch of pre-season. Interestingly, the key matchup of first step of F4 can Tomic vs Slaughter. Slaughter should stand behind Tomic solid otherwise he will defend one two size bigger than him,Jawai.

Like Barca and Oly, Real has 2 player in top 10 T-con Rank. However not like the other F4 teams, Real's first 5 players in T-Con are originally like to play outside. It reflects Real's offense exactly. But nonbeing Bigman threat will their soft spot in El clasico.

When you look play-maker analyze, There is a big difference between Real and other F4 teams

Azerbaijan Airlines is number one hot-shooter so far according our shooter analyze. And real shooters will their main power in F4. Against Barca with no Pete Mikael, Real can play more minutes with 3 guard that means Pascual can hold Sada in game and we all know what will happen in the other side of court right?

Real has one of best rebounders of all time Euroleage, Reyes. He still best man in Real at this age. They have also Mirotic in top 10. They have to struggle against Barca's big boys to balance rebound.

Real's TDR rates are amazing like Barca. If you consider Real's pace, their defense stats are impressive. They can bite opponents when they want.Here is their TDR progress round by round.

Real's TOR number are decreasing while Euroleague progresses. That can be explained by opponents strength and sharpened defenses. And also you can check out Real's TOR progress against EL average.

And, Play Oriented Winning Function analysis;

Against fierce rival Barca, 83 magic number. Over 83 number of play odds will return to Real Madrid. As for potential match-up against Russians they should increase the game pace even more because 83 would probably not enough. However against Oly, 80 number of play will be enough in favor of Real.

Real started Top 16 with 9-1 record but they didn't look like 9-1 team. They won 2xZalgiris, Alba, Pana, Brose games with less than 5 margin.So and so they lost 3 game streak and lost first spot and again luckly they matched up Maccabi (If Pablo Laso had selected opponent he would select Maccabi I think). They swept Maccabi as all we know with average 16 margin!. Under consideration of all circumstances Barca look like half of a step ahead in El Clasico.

#3 Olympiacos Piraeus - Fear the Beard

Here we came to reigning champion. Last year, Olympiacos set the Europe on fire by winning the title over CSKA. Who can forget Printezis' last shot. This year, they kept most of their roster but not their coach Dusan Ivkovic here they are again with their new coach Georgios Bartzokas. The table below shows the roster of the Olympiacos and players' T-Con values.

The Beard of the Europe (as Mehmet named him) , is the top player in all Final Four players in terms of tangible contribution. Also, Kyle Hines is one of the Top 10 players. Olympiacos has fewest player -only 4-  in Top 20 players. Yet, we all know how dangerous they are as a team. Also, they have a man who can change dynamics of a game whenever he wants, Spanoulis and Rising Star of the European Basketball, Papanikolaou.

Let's look at the playmakers of the Olympiacos ;

It's painful that Mantzaris done for the season. He was the best playmaker in the team as it seems. He was second best playmaker in all Final Four players. Even though there is big difference between Mantzaris and Sloukas&Law in all players list,both Sloukas and Law is at Top 10 in Final Four players.

As for shooters of the Olympiacos ;

In combined shooting ranking (SV1) Spanoulis is the best shooter of the Oly. As for 3-pointers Kostas Papanikolaou is not only Olympiacos' best shooter, but also one of the best in all players. Olympiacos has also a few more shooters who can hurt their opponent when they are needed like Printezis,Antic and Perperoglou.

Now, let's look at the rebounding stats of the Olympiacos;

Oly has 3 players in Top 10 list. Kyle Hines looks like best rebounders of the team. He is also Top 10 list for all Euroleague players. Also all best 5 rebounders of the Oly is in the Top 20 list. That shows us how strong Olympiacos is in the painted area. They are especially powerful at defensive rebounds. It can easily be linked to their defensive capability.

It's time to look TDR and TOR values.

Table above proves that Olympiacos was above EL average in every phase of the Euroleague. It is no surprise at all I believe, since it was obvious that Olympiacos was one of the best defensive teams in the Euroleague. The graph below shows the progress of the Euroleague,Olympiacos' TDR values and EL averages in every phase.

As for TOR values ;

Even though Olympiacos' TOR values are decreasing, they were above the EL averages in all phases. We can link this increase to the strength of the opponents. TOR values of the Oly and EL averages are shown  in the graph below.

And finally, Play Oriented Winning Functions;

As we showed in the CSKA post and Barcelona post, game function between Olympiacos and CSKA forms a quadratic function while game function between Olympiacos and Barcelona forms a linear function. The game function between Olympiacos and Real Madrid also forms a linear function.

Olympiacos should be very careful against CSKA Moscow, because number of plays they normally choose to play is in favor of CSKA Moscow. So, they should lower the game pace even more than they normally do. Another option for the CSKA game is increasing the game pace above 85 play, yet it would be much harder to accomplish since their roster not quite capable of playing in this pace.

In a potential match-up against Real Madrid, all they have to do is lower the game pace. Real Madrid is very dangerous in high-pace games. Olympiacos is exactly the opposite. So, in such match-up, whoever manages to establish its pace would win the game. The key of the game is 80 play. It means under 80 play, Olympiacos has a bigger chance to win and it increases while the game pace decreases.

As for a potential match-up against Barcelona, Olympiacos should lower the pace even more. Key number of the game is 77 play. Olympiacos should lower the game pace under the 77 play. If they couldn't,than any extra play would serve to the Barcelona.

To sum up, Olympiacos is a team which is successful in lower pace game. They should defend hard and discomfort their opponents. And also everyone should remember that, they are defending champion and as Rudy Tomjanovic said; "Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion!".

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

#2 Barcelona Regal- Mes Que Un F4

Please read Prologue first,

#1 CSKA Moscow Russians have unfinised business

After a loss against Oly in F4 last year, Barca's roster stayed nearly same. Javai and Tomic was major  incomers. They adapted team in an instant and gave more than expected, especially  Tomic became a major piece for the both side of court. Barcelona's biggest loss in this season definetly Pete Mikael. He was only person who can score in the painted area from backcourt. That will Barca's weak side in El Clasico beyond any doubt. Pascual must find a way to score when team stucked in offense like game 2-3-4 against Pana. Besides CJ Wallace's doubtful health will effect Barca's rotation in 4.

T-CON values show us  so far Barca's MVP is Tomic. They have only 2 player in top 10. That demonstrates Barca came F4 with un-selfhood performances. In CSKA's analyze CSKA had 4 player top 10.

Guards of Barcelona's play making ability values can be discernible above. Barca had 2 great playmakers but this years numbers are not very well when you compare them against F4 opponents.

If someone mention F4 shooter, he will name Navarro somewhere in talking. But apart from La Bomba hard to say Barca has reliable shooters. As we saw in Top 8 against Pana in the crunch times, Barca can have difficulty to find someone to spread offense.

Rebounds one of Barca's strongest side. Tomic and Jawai don't let team trouble in rebounds with their size supermacies. And also they have great backcourt rebounders like Sada. But CJ Wallace's health issue will be important in rebounds too.

Past a few years, Pascual made one of best defensive team in Europe. Despite of big change in front court they still one of best. Above, TDR(Team Defensive Rating) table shows Barca's defense performances' round by round. Decreasing in the rates related with opponents strength but Barca's rates still very good when compared with F4 opponents. Graph of TDR can be shown below.

The progress of Barca offense is shown below with Team Offensive Rating (TOR).

The offense of Barca was always above from EL average till playoffs. Against Pana they struggled in the offense. And 3,04 value take them below from averages.I think, the value of TOR in F4 will decisive for Barca's success. Here is graph of TOR for Barca.

Last and the most important  part of analyze is Play Oriented Winning Percentages. We use this analyze to determine which number of play in the game will serve the teams. First opponent of Barca is rival enemy  Real Madrid.

In the Real Madrid-Barcelona game 83 number of play will be breaking point. That means the game below 83 number of the play will be advantage for Barcelona. As expected, high tempo will serve Real Madrid in F4 matchup against Barca.

If Barca pass Real Madrid against Oly things will change. This time breaking point is 77. And above 77 play number will be advantage for Barca.

As Doğuş mentioned in CSKA Analyze, In possible CSKA- Barca match-up things will be different. In this game will be two breaking point. Till 66 play number and above 85 play number Barca will be front-runner of the game.

_____________________________________________________________________________

*: Points

**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.