Tuesday, May 7, 2013

#3 Olympiacos Piraeus - Fear the Beard


Here we came to reigning champion. Last year, Olympiacos set the Europe on fire by winning the title over CSKA. Who can forget Printezis' last shot. This year, they kept most of their roster but not their coach Dusan Ivkovic here they are again with their new coach Georgios Bartzokas. The table below shows the roster of the Olympiacos and players' T-Con values.


The Beard of the Europe (as Mehmet named him) , is the top player in all Final Four players in terms of tangible contribution. Also, Kyle Hines is one of the Top 10 players. Olympiacos has fewest player -only 4-  in Top 20 players. Yet, we all know how dangerous they are as a team. Also, they have a man who can change dynamics of a game whenever he wants, Spanoulis and Rising Star of the European Basketball, Papanikolaou.

Let's look at the playmakers of the Olympiacos ;

It's painful that Mantzaris done for the season. He was the best playmaker in the team as it seems. He was second best playmaker in all Final Four players. Even though there is big difference between Mantzaris and Sloukas&Law in all players list,both Sloukas and Law is at Top 10 in Final Four players.

As for shooters of the Olympiacos ;


In combined shooting ranking (SV1) Spanoulis is the best shooter of the Oly. As for 3-pointers Kostas Papanikolaou is not only Olympiacos' best shooter, but also one of the best in all players. Olympiacos has also a few more shooters who can hurt their opponent when they are needed like Printezis,Antic and Perperoglou.

Now, let's look at the rebounding stats of the Olympiacos;


Oly has 3 players in Top 10 list. Kyle Hines looks like best rebounders of the team. He is also Top 10 list for all Euroleague players. Also all best 5 rebounders of the Oly is in the Top 20 list. That shows us how strong Olympiacos is in the painted area. They are especially powerful at defensive rebounds. It can easily be linked to their defensive capability.

It's time to look TDR and TOR values.


Table above proves that Olympiacos was above EL average in every phase of the Euroleague. It is no surprise at all I believe, since it was obvious that Olympiacos was one of the best defensive teams in the Euroleague. The graph below shows the progress of the Euroleague,Olympiacos' TDR values and EL averages in every phase.


As for TOR values ;


Even though Olympiacos' TOR values are decreasing, they were above the EL averages in all phases. We can link this increase to the strength of the opponents. TOR values of the Oly and EL averages are shown  in the graph below.


And finally, Play Oriented Winning Functions;




As we showed in the CSKA post and Barcelona post, game function between Olympiacos and CSKA forms a quadratic function while game function between Olympiacos and Barcelona forms a linear function. The game function between Olympiacos and Real Madrid also forms a linear function.

Olympiacos should be very careful against CSKA Moscow, because number of plays they normally choose to play is in favor of CSKA Moscow. So, they should lower the game pace even more than they normally do. Another option for the CSKA game is increasing the game pace above 85 play, yet it would be much harder to accomplish since their roster not quite capable of playing in this pace.

In a potential match-up against Real Madrid, all they have to do is lower the game pace. Real Madrid is very dangerous in high-pace games. Olympiacos is exactly the opposite. So, in such match-up, whoever manages to establish its pace would win the game. The key of the game is 80 play. It means under 80 play, Olympiacos has a bigger chance to win and it increases while the game pace decreases.

As for a potential match-up against Barcelona, Olympiacos should lower the pace even more. Key number of the game is 77 play. Olympiacos should lower the game pace under the 77 play. If they couldn't,than any extra play would serve to the Barcelona.

To sum up, Olympiacos is a team which is successful in lower pace game. They should defend hard and discomfort their opponents. And also everyone should remember that, they are defending champion and as Rudy Tomjanovic said; "Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion!".



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*: Points
**: Possessions

Note: Every analysis ,which is conducted for all players of the Euroleague, is applied for the players who had played at least 15 game in the Euroleague this season.

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