Who Runs The Show Better ?

The game is changing, player roles and expectations from each positions are changing every year in basketball. And also coaches always want extra features from point guards. Shoot uncontested 3 balls, shuffle defense, steal, take fouls, make layups and some floaters of course. These can change in years but playmaking role for point guards will never change.

Now in TOP 16 there are 24 points guards who have major roles for their teams (24 point guards each are playing +20 min per game). And we tried to rank these players' playmaking abilities with numbers. Of course, there can be some points we missed or we couldn't measure right now.

After some researches we selected some important advanced stat which is contributed before by statisticians and that suits our thoughts uterly. And also we tried to produced some stats to rank players playmaking ability. Here are the stats we used.

1-Assist Rate: That formula works to fix  players' assists percentage up to teams' pace. That is a rate between players' assists and teams' possessions while player on the court. #1 is Thomas Huertel, #2 is Dimitris Diamantidis.

2- % Pass: That is the part of Bob Chaikin's touches stat.It refers" the percentage of a player's touches that ended with him passing to a teammate in an attacking position on the floor". Here, there is an assumption, Bob Chaikin assumes approximately 1 of 5 passes of player ends with an assist. Players who made more assist with less touches would be at the top of the list. #1 is Evangelos Mantzaris, #2 is Omar Cook.

3-Turnover Rate: That is different from usual TO rate. Usual one is not sufficient to contribute players' offensive activeness which is the risk taken for turn the ball over. It's a fact that players who are more active in the offense are more likely to make turnovers. So,it would be unfair to interpret ballhandling skills with only turnover numbers. But with our turnover rate, we've almost eliminated that problem. Thus, this gives more realistic results. #1 is again Evangelos Mantzaris(he losses 0,4 ball per game!!), #2 is Bobby Brown.

4-AST. Part I: This formula is assist part of Dean Oliver's Points Produced advanced formula. Assist part measures how much player "produces" score with his assists per scorring possessions. So it gives players' assists' productiveness .#1 is Bobby Brown, #2 is Dimitris Diamantidis.

5-AST. Part II: Again it is Dean Oliver's product. That one is part of scorring possessions formula. He says about that "Ast part gives how easy player made the shots for teammates". Actually it's kinda true, but also it depend on other players in the team and formula ignore it a little.#1 is Omar Cook, #2 is Dashaun Wood.

RANKING: After each rates have been found, players rates are aligned in order and found where these rates fit between 0 and 1 in normal distribution. After done that  for each component, ranks sum up for overall rank.

Check results from full size by clicking the picture.

When you look at the results, who wants or who is better in running teammates like Omar Cook, Dia, Teodosic is in the top of table as we wanted in the beginning of work. Moreover, in the deep of table there are some guards who better in the other roles like Popovic, Earl Calloway, Teddy Gibson. (Recall, that work tries only rank playmaking ability of guards not all packages of point guards.)

Care to Defend? Volume II (Best 20 Defensive Teams in Euroleague History)

In this part,I'll show 20 greatest defensive teams of Euroleague history as I promised. Even though concept of a tournament between European teams was built in '50s, the brand name Euroleague Basketball established in 2000-01 season. I limited this analysis between 2000-01 Season and 2011-12 season,because between those years dynamics of tournament are relatively similar. I made the the defensive analysis -which I mentioned in previous post- for every team since 2000-01 Season. Look what I've found.

We have lot's of successful team in the list above. Several champions,finalist anf F4 teams. Also, I want to remind that until Season 2004-05 Season , there were no playoffs. Only group leader of the Top 16 groups had been able to qualify for Final Four. So, some of the Top 16 teams before 2004-05 Season would probably qualify to playoffs if the rules were the same as present.

One of striking names in the list is Ettore Messina. He made the list for 6 times. It was one the reasons why he is one the greatest coaches in the Euroleague history which clear the way  for NBA. It's misfortune that they never gave him the chance he deserved in NBA. Yet,it's good to see him as commander of one the European powerhouse again.

Also, Xavier Pascual made the list for 3 times -as I've expected-. No doubt that,he is one of the greatest defensive coach in the Euroleague. His Barcelona has always been a solid defensive team. For example, he lost two of his defensive big men at the end of the last year -Boniface N'dong & Fran Vazquez-, yet they are still great defensive team this year (Note that, one of the replacement for these two big men is Nathan Jawai). Pascual has some deficiencies for sure, but it doesn't change the fact that he is one of the best defensive coaches.

I want to say something about Dusko Ivkovic also. He made the list for 2 times, and also he was leading actor one the greatest underdog story last year. Remember, his Olympiacos was the fourth best defensive team last year and as I showed in the last post, increase in their performance was preciously correlated to increase in their defensive capability.

It's weird that Simone Pianigiani made the list in 2007-08 if you consider the fact that his Fenerbahce allowed 94,3 points in last four games (one of them was a Turkish Basketball League game against Anadolu Efes). It's not weird at all,actually. As I said in one of very early post of the blog, Pianigiani's Siena teams were never bad defensive teams.

I Know What Did You in Last 5 Top 16

Now in Top 16, every team is trying to upgrade plays for championship. There is none definite favourite team like last years CSKA-they couldn't win championship but they were favourite by far even the beginning of season and even the end of season-.There is alot of candidates for F4 in this season and also there are some serious teams waiting to fall them.

A Famous quote for nearly all sports " Offense wins games, defense wins championship." Some of us can agree or disagree. I think -like some of you- these two terms interact with each other mentally, especially in Europe. I'm not a psychologist but I play basketball too. If you shoot well, you want to defense intensely, also If you force opponnets missed shot, your offense would be much more confident. Right? Then, which is important? defense or offense I don't know. A chicken and egg situation. But, after these thoughts,  I wanted to look back on last 5 years F4 teams performances. How these teams reached their success?  With offense or defense? 

That work I did isn't a hard or advanced work but it will put some light to F4 mission. There are some charts -are constituted by basic stats for this time- on the right and left. I put only last 3 years numbers because of lack of space. But result tables contain last 5 years outcomes.

Teams are aligned from left to right with F4 results of that year.Stats(offense) charts indicate ranks of teams in specified stat according top16 performances (For ex. Oly in 2012 had 5th 2pt percentage and scored 4th most points between 16 teams). Stats(defense) charts have same logic but this time ranks are stated by opponents performances.(For ex. CSKA's kept their opponents lowest 2pt percentage and allowed lowest points  in 2012 top 16.)

Tables are deployed below contains averages of each selected stats and total averages for years and teams. Green backgrounded 2,4 number in STATS(offense) TOP16 chart is average of all last 5 years finalist teams' 2pt% rank. It is green backrounded because 2,4 is the lowest -which mean the best- one between all average components. Same rules are valid for defense chart. The last AVE rows indicate averages of each column for champions, finalists, 3rd teams and 4th teams. If try to sum something up from these two tables, champion team has best defensive averages between F4 teams in top 16. Therefore  we can say that tables show the achievement comes  a little bit more with defense. 

 
             

In addition, how many champion team get into first 5 team in selected stats in 5 years is indicated following two tables. 4 of last 5 champions had one of best teams in turnover, opponents 2pt% and opponents scored points. Hence these tables point out defenses significance. Do not lose ball, defend well 2pt shot attempts, force your opponnets made less points, here you are a champion. It is very simple like you see (!)

Care to Defend? Volume I (Measuring Defense)

It has always been a question in basketball talks; Defense or Offense? Is it possible to say that one is more important than the other ? Well, there could be an analysis about that later, but in this analysis,I'll focus on the defensive side of the game for now.

How can we measure defensive capability? Are "points allowed" numbers enough to measure it? Despite the fact that these numbers can tell us lots of things about defensive capability, it's still not enough. Say, Team X allows 60 points per game while Team Y allows 70 points per game.Yet, Team Y still could be better defensive team than Team X. If Team Y scored 100 points and Team X scored 70 points per game, then Team Y has better margin between Points Allowed and Points Scored than Team X. Now, here comes the one of the greatest devices of the modern statistics, possession. Don't worry,I won't say that I've just adjusted these numbers with possessions. Even though it's also a good approach to understand defensive capability, it's not enough too. Also, you can find these numbers in any site, no need for me to analyze it. How about some defensive statistics like steal,block or defensive rebound? Likewise,they aren't enough to understand defensive capability by themselves.

We just need to combine all defensive inputs to measure defensive capability. But again, they are different stats from each other, it won't be easy to combine them all. Thus, we need to bring them together to one,common base. I chose to value every defensive act with points. Let me explain. If a team didn't allow its opponent to score a three-pointer,that team deserves +3 points for its defensive effort. Let's say they stole the ball. Then, they would stopped their opponent to organize an offense. Yet, it is still difficult to assign any point to this effort. So let's think backward, if the team didn't steal the ball , opponent would attack as they attacked normally in the game. It means they would attack with their average field goal percentage in the game. Yet, would they go for three-pointer or send the ball to the rim for two-pointer ? It will be decided by their field goal tendency rate[1]. So if we multiplied opponent's field goal tendency rate for that particular game with opponent's average field goal rate -again,for that particular game- we could estimate that how many points the opponent can get from a standard offense. Let's assume that Team Y attacks with standard mean of 2,5 points. If Team X can steal the ball from Team Y, then they will be awarded with +2,5 points for their defensive effort. I applied same logic to every other defensive act.Thereby, carrying all the defensive inputs to the same base became possible. I made the analysis for every season since 2000-01. In this part, I'll show some some statistics from last season. Here are the best four defensive teams of 2011-12 Season.

Coincidentally -or is it?-, Final Four teams were the best defenders last season. It surprised everyone that Olympiacos won the championship, yet they were in fact one of the best defensive teams last season. Sure, it  surprised everyone that they beat Barcelona and CSKA Moscow who look unbeatable -especially CSKA with AK47-. On the other hand, they were pretty good on the defensive side of the game. Let's look at how they improve their defensive rates.

Even though Olympiacos didn't start the season in a great shape, after Top 16 phase they speeded up their defense. It should have helped them to reach their dreams. It was kind of a fairy tale what they did in the Istanbul,indeed. However, it wasn't surprising at all that they reached to Final Four. Now, let's look at the worst four defensive teams.

Three of the teams above eliminated in the group phase. As for the only team didn't, which was Zalgiris Kaunas, they couldn't reach the playoffs. It's not sane to say defense is the only key to succeed. Yet, it's obvious that it's a huge part of it. If you could be a solid defensive team, chances for you to achieve something in the Euroleague become higher.

In the second part, I'm going to show the best defensive teams in the Euroleague history.

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[1] Field Goal Tendency Rate is used to define teams' tendency to choose 3-pointers or 2-pointers. If a team use 3-pointers more often, then their potential score in one  possession would be higher. Because if they made the shoot,then they will get 3 points for a possession instead of 2 points. However, probably they would shoot with lower field goal percentage,so their potential score for one possession will multiplied with lower number. If you don't have couple of snipers, then going for lot's of 3-pointer would most probably hurt your points of standart mean for a possession.

Thunder's Way Volume II

In this post I'm going to continue from 2006-07 Season.

2006-2007 Season

Champion: San Antonio Spurs

Spurs’  Top 3 Players who had the biggest share in team possessions were Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili (15,7/14,8/12,8)[1]. Tim Duncan entered the league as #1 pick in 1997. Not so long, he and "The Admiral" formed up the "Twin Towers". On the other hand Tony Parker and Manu were such draft steals since Tony was First Round, 28^th pick and Manu was not even first round pick he was Second Round, 57^th pick. But most importantly, they had this guy for whom songs are written.

Finalist: Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavs’ Top 3 Players were LeBron James, Larry Hughes and Big Z (24,2/15,5/9,0). Cavs won the lottery in 2003 and they selected LeBron as #1 pick. As for Larry Hughes he joined the team in 2005 as free agent. Z-Bo was the first round pick for Cavs ages ago, yet even in 1996 he wasn’t the lottery win, he was 20^th pick.

Western Conference Finalist: Utah Jazz

Jazz’s Big Three were Carlos Boozer, Memo and D-Will (16,0/13,9/16,5). Funny fact, D-Will had no problems with Jerry Sloan in those years. Carlos Boozer and Memo joined the team in 2004 as free agents. As for Deron, he was the First Round, 3^rd pick in 2005.

Eastern Conference Finalist: Detroit Pistons

Second version of the Bad Boys reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2007. Like previous years, 3 players rule the ball were Rip Hamilton,Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince(16,9/14,1/11,3). All three of them joined team in 2002; Rip joined as a result of a trade between Pistons and Wizards while Chauncey joined as free agent. As for Prince he was a draft steal in those years, he was 23^rd pick in first round.

2007-2008 Season

Champion: Boston Celtics

After years of domination, Celtics had several miserable years. In 2008, they reached the O’Brien Trophy at last. They recruited ringless superstars to joined their own superstar “The Truth”. As expected their Ruler 3 were Paul Pierce, KG and Ray Ray (16,2/14/13,7). Paul Pierce was 10^th pick in 1998 which is not easy to be considered as winning the lottery. On the other hand Garnett and Ray Allen joined the team in 2007.

Finalist: Los Angeles Lakers

King of the Trades.  Lakers recruited a solid team after the nightmarish post-Shaq era.  Their 3 stars were The Black Mamba, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom (18,7/9,8/8,2). Kobe joined the team in a draft night trade which included one of the dominant centers in the league, Vlade Divac as Mehmet mentioned.  Pau joined the team in the half of the season with a trade between Lakers and  Grizzlies which also included draft rights of his little brother Marc -little is probably the wrong word if you consider the fact that Marc is 2,16- As for Lamar Odom, when Shaq traded to Miami, Lamar left the Florida beaches and came to the California.

Eastern Conference Finalist&: Detroit Pistons

I’ve mentioned Pistons before , in 2008 there were nothing changed. Rip, Billups and Prince were still featured stars of the Pistons.

Western Conference Finalist: San Antonio Spurs

Like Pistons, their Ruler 3 hasn’t changed since 2007.

2008-2009 Season

Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

In 2009, Kobe already had 3 rings, but he was still hungry for another ring as much as a “Winner” should be. Nothing changed much since previous season except the fact that Bynum became more dominant player. Even though he hadn’t got the one of the Top 3 spots, he became one of the most dominant centers in the league. After he was picked in the  10^th row in 2005, finally he was about to reach his potential.

Finalist: Orlando Magic

Happy times.  In 2008-2009 season, Dwight was still enjoying to play for Orlando. Surprising ha? Yeah, true story. They were a solid team, they even beat Cavaliers in Eastern Conference Finals which devastated LeBron like hell and which was also one of the reasons led him to notorious “The Decision”. Anyway, that happy Orlando Magic’s Ruler 3 were Hedo, Howard and Rashard Lewis (13,4/12,4/11,9). Howard was the #1 pick in 2004. On the other hand Lewis joined Orlando in 2007 from Seattle as a result of sign&trade transaction.  As for Hedo, he came to the Orlando as free agent in 2004.

Western Conference Finalist: Denver Nuggets

Denver finally reached the Western Conference Finals in 2009, after they hit the jackpot in 2003 Draft, thanks to Detroit. In 2009, Denver’s 3 Horsemen of the Apocalypse were Carmelo Antony, The Answer and Chauncey Billups (16,8/14,1/12,4).  Carmelo was the 3^rd pick in 2003-one of the greatest draft classes, I believe-. He found his company Iverson in 2006 when he gave up his championship dreams in Philly. The two found their commander in 2008, when Billups returned the Denver with 2 NBA Finals and 1 ring.

Eastern Conference Finalist: Cleveland Cavaliers

In 2009, people of Ohio were in love with LeBron. He was throwing the powder, they were confident that they will reach at least to the NBA Finals. Sadly, they couldn’t. Since 2007, two of the three ball rulers were still where they were before, Big Z and LeBron. Mo Williams was the third player who has the one of the Top 3 highest possession. He had the second highest possession percentage (15,3) in the team. They added Mo Williams in 2008 as a result of a trade between Cavs and Bucks.

2009-2010 Season

Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

Things were almost same in the Lakers Dynasty. Bynum climbed up to the Top 3 spot instead of Odom. One of the things should be mentioned is, rising of the Ron Artest, aka Metta World Peace. Who can forget the 7^th game of 2010 Finals. He joined Lakers in 2009 as free agent.

Finalist: Boston Celtics

After a season, they were in the Finals again. While they were trying to beat their arch enemy in 2010 Finals, their Big 3 were still in the shape. Yet, there was another commander in their roster, Rajon Rondo. Rondo joined the team in 2006 Draft as first round, 21^st pick.

Eastern Conference Finalist&: Phoenix Suns

After Mike D’Antoni era, Phoenix reached the Western Conference Finals again. Their Top 3 players were Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash and Jason Richardson (16,6/15/12,5). Steve Nash joined the team in 2004 as free agent which was the one the milestone in the franchise history. Amare was the first round, 9^th pick in 2002. As for J-Rich, he joined Suns' roster with a trade between Phoenix Suns and Charlotte.

Western Conference Finalist: Orlando Magic

In 2010, they reached Eastern Conference Finals with Dwight Howard for the last time. Even though their go-to-guy, Howard, was still there, their two of Top 3 had changed. His companies were Air Canada and Jameer Nelson. Vince Carter traded from Nets in 2009, as for Nelson he was traded in the draft night from Denver in 2004.

2010-2011 Season

Champion: Dallas Mavericks

In 2011, Mark Cuban reached his life-long dream. I would like to give my respects to Wayne L. Winston for this championship. After they couldn’t reach the O’Brien Trophy with Steve Nash, Michael Finley,Dirk Nowitzki trio,even when they added Antawn Jamison, they renewed. In 2011, their Top 3 were Dirk Nowitzki, as expected, Jason Terry and Caron Butler (15/12,1/11,4). Mehmet mentioned how they got Dirk- I can only say something about his hair,in 2011 his hair was way better than 1998-, I’ll write about Terry and Butler. Terry traded from Atlanta in 2004. On the other hand, Butler traded form Wizards in 2010. By the way, I have to mention two more player even though they hadn’t got possession percentage as much as Dirk,Terry and Butler, they were the biggest part of the team, Kidd&Chandler. Kidd returned home after a trade between Nets and Mavs in 2008, and Chandler traded from Bobcats in 2010.

Finalist: Miami Heat

After they recruited Bosh and LeBron in the beginning of the season and LeBron promised 8 championships –I’m still laughing btw-, everyone assumed that they would get their first ring in 2010. Yet, they couldn’t. Their go-to-three are very obvious. Wade was their draft pick in 2003. He was first round,5^th pick. Yet, they loved Draft Class 2003. They signed with LeBron James -1^st pick in 2003- and Chris Bosh -4^th pick in 2003- in 2010.

Eastern Conference Finalist&: Oklahoma City Thunder

Here comes the Thunder saga. After a heartbroken departure from City of Seattle, the franchise started everything over. They made greatest draft picks in a row, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Also, they got the Jeff Green from Boston in the draft night in 2007. I gotta say that, they are one of their kind.  In 2011, they reached the Western Conference Finals. Harden was a little bit shy , so their Top 3 guys were Durant, Westbrook and Green (20,1/17,9/11,5). Durant was 2^nd pick in 2007 Draft, Westbrook was 4^th pick in 2008 and Green was a draft night trade as I’ve mentioned before. As for their fourth guy, Harden, he was 3^rd pick in 2009.

Western Conference Finalist: Chicago Bulls

After, his majesty retired, Bulls struggled to become a contender again. Yet, it’s really understandable, I mean give them a break, they’ve only lost the greatest player of all time. Anyway, they found the player they’ve been expecting, Derrick Rose. He was the first round,1^st pick in 2008. By the way, I’m looking forward to #thereturn. Their companies in 2011 were Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng. Boozer joined the team in 2010 from a trade from Utah Jazz. As for Deng, he was traded in the draft night 2004 from Phoenix.   

2011-2012 Season

Champion: Miami Heat

Everything was still same in 2012, except the fact that they won the O’Brien Trophy this time. 7 championship to go, yeah I'm kidding.  Big three were still the Top 3 player in the team. However, LeBron put a heavenly performance in 2012. He didn't give up, he took the responsibility when his team needed him and he got the ring. He answered all the criticism towards him in the court.

   

Finalist: Oklahoma City Thunder

For OKC, things were almost same like Heat. They traded Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins, and The Beard stepped up and became the one of the Top 3 player. He was not as impressive as we expected in the Finals, yet he was marvelous in the regular season and playoff games.

Eastern Conference Finalist: Boston Celtics

It was a surprise that Old Boys reached the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s not only that, they were too close to beat Heat. I have to say that Rose’s injury shook the Eastern Conference’s dynamics. Yet, it doesn’t change the fact that Boston showed some great performances in the playoffs. As for their Top 3, Rondo stepped up and entered the list instead of Ray Ray.

Western Conference Finalist: San Antonio Spurs

In 2012, their Top 3 was still same Duncan, Manu and Parker (9,8/7,6/13,1). However, Spurs wasn’t same Spurs as they were. Spurs has made their name as a “Defensive Team”. In 2012, they were an “Offensive Team”, not only that they were the best offensive team in the league. Yet, after a 10 win in a row in the playoffs, they couldn’t resist to the “Fountain of Youth” of Thunder.

As you can see, there is only one team succeed with "Thunder Model",Oklahama City Thunder. It's not because "The Thunder Model" isn't good, it's because that model is very hard to apply. Apart form the fact that it's hard enough to find a high position in the draft in a row, some draft classes can be really disappointing in terms of talent. Also, some non-talent related factors may affect any player's career,like injuries or personal issues. For example, I was very confident that Greg Oden would shake the league before the 2007-2008 Season. Yet, injuries ruined his career which is the ache I will always remember. Anyway, if there is something common in all teams, everyone of them had a reliable franchise player -except Pistons, but they had a great core-. It's almost impossible to succeed unless you've got a franchise player. You should find your superstar -with a trade or a lottery win,doesn't matter- and then build around him. If you can make more great drafts while trying to do your best and competing hard for the championship, good for you.Yet, if you continue to lose and  wait for another drafts to build a team, you would probably fail and lose your superstar too. 

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[1] Numbers in the parenthesis represent the percentage of the possession which the corresponding player has in the team.