Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Concernin' Fenerbahce Ulker's Rebound Problem

One of the most popular topics in Euroleague chit chats; Fenerbahce has a major rebounding problem. It's clear that they have the worst rebound numbers in the league.(29,3 Av. - 24th). Also, they give 12,1 offensive rebound per game which is the 3rd highest number in the league. So, we can safely presume that their biggest flaw in the defense is rebounds. Or can we ? I'll  make a direct quote from Grima Wormtongue to answer this question ; "That is a lie". OK, lie is a little bit harsh , it's more misunderstanding than lie.

I'm not an idiot-I think- and I'm aware of that Fenerbahce isn't good at rebounding,not only that they are  the worst team in the Euroleague in term of rebounds. However, it's not their problem in the defensive side of the game. I should define the word "problem" first. If something doesn't progress as you expected, then you have a problem. But, Fenerbahce's being the one of the worst team in rebound numbers is -should be - expected. It's not about players, it's about defensive system that Pianigiani prefers. Being weak on the board one of the outputs of the system. It's the worst output,but still it is not an unexpected result. It was always like this in Pianigiani's teams. Let's look at some of the previous Mens Sana Siena teams' rebounding numbers.



Graphs above represent the offensive rebounds teams allowed per opponent's 100 possession. It's obvious that Siena has never had good  rebound numbers in last 3 year. If we want to analyze Fenerbahce for same statistics ;




Nothing has changed in rebound numbers. Yet,something is still wrong,because, Pianigiani's Siena teams were never bad defensive teams.Yet, Fenerbahce seems pretty unsatisfying in the defensive end. Then, a new question is rising; What's the problem ???

First, we need to understand the Pianigiani's defensive style. Pianigiani is very fond of putting pressure on the ball on the backcourt. He wants his players to be aggressive while defending and watch for every opportunity to steal the ball. That puts so much pressure on opponents' guards and makes it so much harder for opponents to set up the game. This pressure forces opponents to turnovers and increase the steal number in his teams. The negative side of that mentality is rebounds. It's almost impossible to outrun other teams in rebound numbers with this defensive approach,yet it will be an acceptable lost if you force your opponents to several number of turnovers. Now, let's get back to the original question; "What's the problem?". The problem is , even though Fenerbahce tries to play same defensive mentality as previous Siena teams, they couldn't be as aggresive as they should be so far. They couldn't force the opponent's to turnovers as Siena. They suffered the rebounding problems as expected but they couldn't reap the benefit of their defensive mentality. An analyze for steal and forced turnover numbers are shown below.



As I mentioned before, poor rebound numbers are expected output of Simone Pianigiani's defensive mentality, but  great steal numbers and forced turnover numbers are too. These numbers also trigger the transition offenses which increases the teams efficiency. All these analyzes show that, lack of aggresiveness and weak pressure on the ball is the Fenerbahce's main problem in the defense. Slim rebound numbers are just collateral damage.


Note: This analyze only includes outputs of the Pianigiani's defensive mentality. Fenerbahce has some other defensive problems too,such as defending P&R offenses or lack of strenght on the frontcourt. Yet,they have nothing to do with defensive mentality, it's all about roster. Maybe there will be another analyzes concerning these problems but not this one.

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